A Prediction: All Software Apps will be replaced by bookmarks to Web Apps within 5 years.
A friend and customer of mine contacted me over email this morning to tell me about an App idea he had, asking my opinion. It brings to light a prediction I'm making about Software.
I think software you buy and install is going to become obsolete in five years.
It's going to be replaced by web software or "Web Apps".
Here is my response to his email (without revealing his good idea :).
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Josh, I think your App is a great Idea.
I think you are correct to surround yourself with people who can help you make your ideas a reality. Pursue it if you are passionate about it by all means.
However, I'd advise you to make your idea a Web App. Develop bookmarks or buttons people install on iPhone, android or kindle instead of developing it to be installed on those devices.
I'm personally giving "apps" you install on devices another 5 years tops.
This actually goes for all software you install on anything.
Software Apps need to be updated by the consumer like any other software. They need to be loaded on a device and installed before they can be used. Think of flash or itunes. How many times does your computer ask you to update them? It's an old train that Microsoft has been riding for a long time. But even they are getting off the software train. Most of Microsoft's research budget is focused on cloud based services. Soon you will buy all software like Microsoft Office online exclusively. Installations will become a thing of the past.
Web Apps are the future. Software hosted on servers that you access over the internet to use. They can be accessed by any device or computer with an internet connection. Iphone, android, Nokia, Blackberry, Mac, PC, linux? Doesn't matter what platform you're using. No loading or updating for the customer to handle before use. Think google docs.
This means you'll reach more people and there's a LOT less to develop. You just need to develop for one platform. The internet. Sure you can make an "App" that links to your web app. It's just a glorified bookmark for people to install on their phones so they have a button to tap with their thumb. Google does it all the time.
I've got a lot I'm working on right now and I wouldn't be able to take on an app or web app but I appreciate you asking for my opinion and I'm happy to share it with you.
Cameron
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If you have a great Idea for an app, don't invest all the time an effort developing it for a walled garden like the the iPhone or the kindle. Develop bookmarks or doorways in those gardens that take people to your web application instead.
Develop your idea on one universal platform, the internet.
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I agree with you, Cameron. The only obstacle that I see is interaction on a device's file system, iOs.
If it's not an app loaded onto the device then it cannot interact with that devices files. Think Facebook and uploading pictures and videos.
Of coarse this is a mobile app obstacle but never-the-less a pretty large one based on the mobile device's popularity.
I made this prediction earlier in the year too.
I agree with you, Cameron. The only obstacle that I see is interaction on a device's file system, iOs.
If it's not an app loaded onto the device then it cannot interact with that devices files. Think Facebook and uploading pictures and videos.
Of coarse this is a mobile app obstacle but never-the-less a pretty large one based on the mobile device's popularity.
I made this prediction earlier in the year too.
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